Climate models have accurately predicted global heating, study finds

Posted by aclimaadmin | 5 abendua, 2019 | Sektoreari buruzko albisteak

Findings confirm reliability of projections of temperature changes over last 50 years

Climate models have accurately predicted global heating for the past 50 years, a study has found.

The findings confirm that since as early as 1970, climate scientists have had a solid fundamental understanding of the Earth’s climate system and the ability to project how it will respond to continued increases in the greenhouse effect. Since climate models have accurately anticipated global temperature changes so far, we can expect projections of future warming to be reliable as well.

The research examines the accuracy of 17 models published over the past five decades, beginning with a 1970 study and including 1981 and 1988 models led by James Hansen, the former Nasa climatologist who testified to the US Senate in 1988 about the impacts of anthropogenic global heating. The study also includes the first four reports by the UN’s intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC).

“We found that climate models – even those published back in the 1970s – did remarkably well, with 14 out of the 17 model projections indistinguishable from what actually occurred,” said Zeke Hausfather, of the University of California, Berkeley, and lead author of the paper.

Based on modern climate model projections, if countries follow through with current and pledged climate policies, the world is on track for about 3C of warming above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100 – a situation the IPCC and others predict would be catastrophic.

The challenge in evaluating climate model accuracy lies in the fact that due to computing power limitations, simulations are only run for a few specific future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. There are an infinite number of such possible scenarios, but real-world emissions will follow only one path, and it will never exactly match the few scenarios input into climate models. Thus, if Earth warms less than in a climate model projection, it does not necessarily mean the model was inaccurate.

Add a comment

*Please complete all fields correctly

Posts Relaccionados

Posted by aclimaadmin | 18 iraila 2020
La nueva viceconsejera asumirá uno de los cargos del segundo nivel del Gobierno con mayor presión política tras el derrumbe de Zaldibar Aunque el Gobierno vasco se puso manos a...
Posted by aclimaadmin | 18 iraila 2020
El proyecto Clean Sky ReINTEGRA está liderado por el Centro de Investigación Metalúrgica AZTERLAN y cuenta con la participación de la empresa belga SONACA (Societé Nationale de Construction Aerospatiale SA)...
Posted by aclimaadmin | 18 iraila 2020
El pleno del Parlamento Europeo ha pedido este jueves aumentar a 25.000 millones de euros la dotación del Fondo para la Transición Justa, el nuevo programa con el que la...
X